Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 1.291534 1.465968 1.651153 1.861953 2.094810 2.343712 2.629427
2025-01-12 1.021606 1.254613 1.517993 1.836106 2.208167 2.627759 3.134865
2025-01-19 0.810534 1.074769 1.392006 1.797102 2.296438 2.887390 3.634827
2025-01-26 0.680524 0.971464 1.341329 1.838693 2.481775 3.276347 4.322281
2025-02-02 0.570001 0.876007 1.287628 1.869535 2.656838 3.669481 5.052296
2025-02-09 0.471991 0.781700 1.222504 1.876977 2.801950 4.037775 5.784142
2025-02-16 0.393955 0.702900 1.167698 1.891166 2.956755 4.431801 6.582899
2025-02-23 0.316298 0.610561 1.079617 1.845814 3.022122 4.708530 7.244709
2025-03-02 0.246671 0.517508 0.976033 1.762872 3.022201 4.891307 7.787992
2025-03-09 0.204461 0.463584 0.927227 1.758957 3.140107 5.253020 8.613615
2025-03-16 0.166090 0.408392 0.867321 1.728331 3.211440 5.548727 9.361026
2025-03-23 0.145056 0.383158 0.857031 1.780819 3.421962 6.073095 10.488146
2025-03-30 0.114224 0.330728 0.789393 1.727019 3.456716 6.335547 11.250385
2025-04-06 0.092950 0.294169 0.746566 1.713297 3.559520 6.716657 12.228328
2025-04-13 0.074459 0.258804 0.699559 1.684761 3.632545 7.053709 13.158333
2025-04-20 0.064267 0.242221 0.690513 1.730897 3.847222 7.646302 14.546007
2025-04-27 0.054919 0.225032 0.676904 1.765661 4.043500 8.220506 15.937603
2025-05-04 0.045888 0.205578 0.654011 1.777103 4.195024 8.725214 17.239704
2025-05-11 0.038584 0.188958 0.634881 1.794143 4.358934 9.262746 18.628895
2025-05-18 0.030488 0.165879 0.593518 1.753467 4.399621 9.574479 19.635553
2025-05-25 0.022958 0.140875 0.540509 1.676103 4.353852 9.718349 20.346603
2025-06-01 0.018810 0.127770 0.519148 1.674003 4.470180 10.179976 21.661289
2025-06-08 0.014883 0.113226 0.489584 1.645917 4.525239 10.523939 22.774183